Monday, January 3, 2011

2011: 6 Predictions

A coworker (Lon Koenig, figure if I give him a mention...) and I were quickly discussion our predictions for 2011.  I thought to myself, why not see what I get wrong a year from now, so here it goes:

1.  Google TV will invade the living room.  Yeah, I know right now it is rough, and I know it has a long way to go.  I think Google will come out with their music streaming service and open up the market, in addition many manufacturers will get on board and build this platform into everything that moves.  There just is no competition right now.  Roku and Boxee doomed themselves by focusing on their own hardware.  Apple would never allow their software to be installed on any other hardware.  Microsoft while nice, pretty and functional goes the way of Apple and won't look past the Xbox360.  I think manufacturers are looking for a great platform, and Google is the only one offering anything on the radar (Yahoo doesn't count), in addition they are committed to building it up.

2.  Google buys DropBox.  This one is far fetched, but they have always gone after installed user bases, and boy does DropBox have their community in a nutshell.  If they don't do this they will beef up what you can do with Google Docs on the client side, but that isn't their typical nature.

3.  Your mom will get a Droid, so will the rest of your family.  Don't get me wrong, I think the iPhone is great, and very simple and probably more suited for this crowd.  But the marketing engine is pushing Android devices, and I don't see that ending with the soon influx of tablets and the sheer number of options available from different carriers.  Even with the iPhone getting in bed with other carriers I think it is probably still going to come out in Android's favor in 2011.

4.  Apple will have issues at the top.  No one man can replace the man at the helm, but with past health issues and continuous stress something has to break.  The man saved the company from the brink, and even though I assume he is a workaholic and is probably happiest doing what he does, he is still human.  Yes, I still regret not buying Apple stock when it was below $7/share in college, don't remind me.

5.  3D won't be the deciding factor on your next television.  Do I think 3D will be built into everything from here on out?  Yep.  Do I think anybody will care?  Nope.  It will go from marketing hype to a checkbox like "HDMI inputs".  I think in 2012 it will be forgotten unless some of the tech can allow for cheaper glasses (which it appears will be at CES), so I will hold my predictions for it's ultimate fate for next year (I still think nobody cares).

You can find Lon's predictions here.  I tend to agree, although I will add one to counter his.

6.  Apple will not allow all apps on Apple TV.  But might "let you" pick from a few they think they need to stay competitive.  Full iTunes app store access?  No way.  Well, something happens with #4 above, then expect an update about a week after that change.